Indian Stock Market: Trend & Reality

  • 91.1% of individual traders (about 73 lakh traders) lost money in the F&O segment in FY24.
  • In FY24 alone, Individuals incurred about ₹75000 crore in net losses.
  • Only 7.2% of Individual F&O traders made a profit over the period of three years.
  • Only 1% of individual traders managed to earn profits exceeding ₹1 lakh, after adjusting for transaction costs in F&O over the period of three years.
  • Individuals incurred more than ₹50,000 crores in transaction costs for trading in F&O during FY22 to FY24. Of which more than half (about ₹25,000 crore) was in the form of brokerage, followed by ₹13,800 crores to the Government in the form of STT, GST and Stamp duty and ₹10,200 crore in the form of Exchange fees.
  • Higher trading activity was associated with a higher percentage of loss-makers.
  • Compared to ‘Male’ traders, less proportion of ‘Female’ traders incurred losses.
  • More than 50% of all the F&O traders, who traded in FY24, were from top four states namely Maharashtra, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan.
  • More than 75% of the loss-makers persisted with the trading in F&O, despite making losses in preceding two consecutive years. However, only 8.3% of traders, who persisted to trade in F&O in third year in spite of losses in two preceding years, succeeded to make profit in third year.
  • India’s derivatives market has witnessed remarkable growth since its inception in June 2000, when the National Stock Exchange (NSE) launched trading in Index Futures.
  • The number of Retail traders, or Individual traders (Individuals) have almost doubled in two years from about 51 lakhs in FY22 to about 96 lakhs in FY24.
  • Further, compared to Mutual Fund investors, the number of Individual F&O traders have grown faster.
  • Therefore, this rapid growth in F&O trading activity has once again highlighted the need for investor education and risk management practices, as a significant proportion of retail traders continued to incur losses in the market.
  • Definitions of categories for Section 1 Data
    • Proprietary Traders —— Trading Member, who itself trade in F&O in its own account. (Total 626 Traders only)
    • Individuals —— Individuals, HUF, Proprietorship Firm, Partnership Firm, Limited Liability Partnership Firm (Total 95,75,473 Traders only)
  • It may be noted that the sample of earlier SEBI study was based on Top 10 brokers, whereas that of current study is based on the sample collected from Top 15 brokers.
  • These top 15 brokers account for nearly 90 percent of total individuals
  • Tier I (The following 7 cities considered – Banglore, Delhi, Chennai, Hyderabad, Mumbai, Pune, Kolkata).
  • Tier II (The following 20 cities considered – Amritsar, Bhopal, Bhubaneswar, Chandigarh, Faridabad, Ghaziabad, Jamshedpur, Jaipur, Kochi, Lucknow, Nagpur, Patna, Raipur, Surat, Visakhapatnam, Agra, Ajmer, Kanpur, Mysuru, Srinagar),
  • Tier III (The following 19 cities considered – Etawah, Roorkee, Rajamundry, Bhatinda, Hajipur, Rohtak, Hosur, Gandhinagar, Junagadh, Udaipur, Salem, Jhansi, Madurai, Meerut, Mathura, Bikaner, Cuttack, Vijayawada, Nashik).
  • For computation of profit/loss- realized profit/loss during the period is considered.
  • In FY24, the Proprietary traders’ category earned the highest gross profit (i.e. trading profits before accounting for transaction costs) of about ₹33,000 crore in the equity F&O segment of NSE.
  • While, Individuals made losses in Options to the tune of ~ ₹55,000 crore in FY24, they made profits to the tune of about ~ ₹13,400 crore in Futures.
  • “Others” category, which includes mainly Corporates, NRIs and Trusts, made losses with Algos, but profit without Algos
  • It was observed that the percentage of Individual traders making losses in Futures contracts is constantly lower than those making losses in Options contracts throughout the study period.
  • Individual’s losses in Options segment grew 30.8% year-on-year to ₹77,800 crore in FY24, while they made gains of ₹3,000 crore in Futures (compared to losses of about ₹6,200 crore in FY23).
  • In Futures, individuals made an average net profit of about ₹60,000 per person in FY24, compared to loss of ₹1,28,000 per person in FY23.
  • On an average, Individuals spent ~ ₹ 26,000 per person as a transaction cost in FY24.
  • During FY22 to FY24, there were a total of 1.13 crore unique Individual traders, who traded in F&O at least once during these three years. And, 0.70 lakh traders (or 0.6% traders) traded only Futures.
  • It was observed that higher trading activity was associated with a higher percentage of loss-makers.
  • As traders age increased, the percentage of loss-makers in F&O declined, indicating relative risk aversion, better risk management or the experience coming into play for elderly traders compared to young traders.
  • Low Income: declared annual income less than ₹5 lakh
  • Mid Income: declared annual income between ₹5 lakh to ₹25 lakh
  • High Income: declared annual income less than ₹25 Lakh to ₹ 1 Crore
  • The percentage of loss-makers for “Low Income” traders’ category was the highest (92.2% in FY24)
  • As traders’ annual income increased, the percentage of loss-makers in that category had declined.
  • Compared to ‘Male’ traders, the proportion of ‘Female’ loss-making traders in F&O was lower across the years.
  • In terms of state-wise pattern of average per person loss, it was observed that all the top four states with highest average per person loss were from southern region of India, namely Telangana (1.97 lakh per person loss), followed by Andhra Pradesh (1.45 lakh per person), Tamil Nadu (1.37 lakh per person) and Karnataka (1.35 lakh per person).

Analysis of Profits & Losses in the Equity Derivatives Segment (FY22 – FY24)

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DABUR: 225000 Invested = 3,92,500/- Return ‼️

Greetings ‼️


Most Out performing FMCG Stock from March Bottom of NIFTY

  • ITC
  • NESTLEIND & BRITANNIA
  • HINDUNILVR & DABUR
  • Least moving is MARICO

Postmortem is very easy in present:

But taking RIGHT decision is most important during real and live market.

And to take decision we follow a standard operating procedure, sometimes we get to book reasonable amount of Profit, Many Times commendable amount of Profit and,

On few occasion we see LOSSES also.

For Example HINDPETRO Short Sell @ 267, Exited at 278 July Futures.

There is only one way to Survive in Stock Market and that is:

Learn from the Losses to maximize Profit. 🙂🙏🏽

And to manage Market Risk we divide Capital in Two Parts – First Regular Trading amount and Second part is for Emergency created by sudden developments, unexpected events –

for example – Silicon Valley Bank Collapse, Hindenburg Report on ADANI Group.

Emergency Fund will be used only in those conditions.

Else, lying unused in Saving Account of a PSU Bank.

Original Capital – The More is merrier.


BUY Missed.🤔

Reason:

Entry Price missed by 25 paisa only.


Running Profit at Yesterday’s Closing Price of 194.05 could have been above 1,00,000/-

Opportunity Missed. 😞😞


To Act or Not to Act is the only Choice

We at Rocket Trades believes that making Mistake and/or Booking Losses are neither bad nor avoidable. This is a part & parcel of Stock Market Life. We have to live with it. No Choice. No Back Door, No Short Cut.

And following is our advised action…

Dabur “ENTRY” Messages

Dabur “EXIT” Messages


Rocket Trades

We are Strictly fee only Research House armed with proprietary methods & workings.


Call, Text, WhatsApp: +91 99003 30558

Trading Counsel, Support & Guide

SEBI RA: INH200002978, Bengaluru

E-Mail ID: Rocket@RocketTrades.com

BANKNIFTY Spot Index – Target 46000+ ⁉️

Greetings ‼️

Market Holiday Today: BSE, NSE to remain closed on account of Maharashtra Day.


BANKNIFTY is less than 1000pts away from its all time high in spite of all the news like ADANI Group, Silicon Valley Bank.

Closed at 43233.90 as on 28 April 2023, and 👇

Till date recorded All Time High for BANKNIFTY is 44151.80


Table – One

Top constituents by weightage AS on 28 April 2023
Company’s NameNSE CODE Weight (%)
HDFC Bank Ltd.HDFCBANK27.41
ICICI Bank Ltd.ICICIBANK23.61
Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd.KOTAKBANK10.5
State Bank of IndiaSBIN10.47
Axis Bank Ltd.AXISBANK9.53
IndusInd Bank Ltd.INDUSINDBK6.25
Bank of BarodaBANKBARODA2.91
AU Small Finance Bank Ltd.AUBANK2.65
Federal Bank Ltd.FEDERALBNK2.38
IDFC First Bank Ltd.IDFCFIRSTB1.59

Table – Two

SYMBOL52wk HIGH52wk High Date52wk LOW52wk Low Date
HDFCBANK172017-Apr-231271.617-Jun-22
ICICIBANK958.230-Nov-22669.9517-Jun-22
KOTAKBANK1997.5518-Nov-22163130-Jun-22
SBIN629.5515-Dec-22430.720-Jun-22
AXISBANK97004-Jan-23618.2523-Jun-22
INDUSINDBK1275.820-Sep-22763.223-Jun-22
BANKBARODA197.209-Dec-2289.8520-Jun-22
AUBANK71229-Apr-2253915-Jul-22
FEDERALBNK143.416-Jan-2382.526-May-22
IDFCFIRSTB64.315-Dec-2228.9522-Jun-22

Observations:

  • WHEN 90% plus combined weightage of BANKNIFTY Stocks made new 52 week Low means Market is almost or near BOTTOM.
  • And, we should become defensive (create hedge) when 50% plus combined weightage of BANKNIFTY Stocks makes new 52 week HIGH means Market is almost or near TOP.
  • Same is valid for all other Sectoral Indices – We are not sure… 🙂🙏🏽
  • However, This is all True in case of BANKNIFTY especially when NIFTY50 is in Clear “BUY” Mode. Likewise, when Short Sell is not Triggered – correction is Possible which means BUY at every 4% Fall – without STOP-LOSS.

Now People are BUYING Banks…🤔


Getting started is the hardest part

The most successful Research Analysts don’t care – who’s watching or following.

They just keep on doing their bit to capture Market Opportunities…

Rocket Trades

We are Strictly fee only Research House armed with proprietary methods & workings.


Call, Text, WhatsApp: +91 99003 30558

Trading Counsel, Support & Guide

SEBI RA: INH200002978, Bengaluru

E-Mail ID: Rocket@RocketTrades.com