Bye bye 2022…
Of course, we cannot say that we are closing Calendar Year 2022 on a very high note but comparably what we had gone through during the year we can safely conclude (say) that working has been satisfactory but subsequent improvement is required too.
Below are three Insights – which we never had seen / experienced in the last 22 Years of our actively watching the Market.
First Lesson or Insight:
In spite of all kinds of the Bad News, for example: War News, Rising Inflation, Depreciating Rupee, relentless Selling by FIIs, Global Markets’ Down Trend, Border Disputes & Issues, Rising Interest Rates- still NIFTY50 could find the bottom and make New All Time High.
Agreed that on bad news Market did see Sell off but quick to find the bottom also.
What actually had happened in the Last 5 Quarters of Calendar Year 2021 & 2022:
- October 2021 – All Time High 18604
- December 2022 – All Time High 18887.60
In between recorded 52 week Low has been at 15183.40
That is not even 20% at Index Levels from October 2021 High.
Agreed Stocks had seen / experienced strong beating but even then overall Trend remained range bound since last 5 Quarters.
Which means those who were Buyers (die-hard bulls) and Trades without Stop-loss only made money in Calendar Year 2022.
The Indian Stock Markets’ die-hard bulls are now dependent on SIP Money. Shaking off their confidence will definitely have to be a domestic issue / matter.
Second Lesson or Insight:
Most fundamental companies of Indian Stock Markets had fallen 30%, 40% from their respective All Time Highs, for example – TCS, INFY and still trading at & near their respective 52 week lows.
Whereas Good Story Tellers like ADANIENT have tripled during the same period. And still trading near 52 week Highs.
Another Example: PAYTM listed on 18 November 2021 at ₹1955 levels and today trading around ₹550 levels – 75% value lost.
What an irony – now the same PAYTM management is bringing up the Buy back offer at ₹810 levels. Mind you there is no rights issue, bonus, and/or split took place in the last 13 months of listing.
Is it not qualified a kind of the white collar crime ⁉️
No one ever made a decision because of a number. They need a story.
Daniel Kahneman, in Michael Lewis’ “The Undoing Project“
Government Stocks are no better, for example: LICI – listed on 17 May 2022 at ₹918.95 levels and today trading around 680 levels – 30% value lost.
- The government sold its holding of LICI to Retailers at 950 levels.
- Old timers should relate the same good story telling to COALINDIA of 2014.
Barring IRCTC none of the other Government IPO ever made retailers happy.
Making this derogatory statement based on a limited number of examples Pardon me in advance, if I missed out any other name.
And, Rumours already started doing the rounds about unified insurance licences, mergers and acquisitions of other subsidiaries / other government companies with LICI to shore up the Market value. However, even then,
We are waiting to BUY LICI at & below ₹550 NSE Cash levels for long term investments.
Just like our call of Buying “YESBANK” ₹11 a piece
On the other hand the likes of TCS INFY have a proven track record, honest promoters, cash rich, debt free, stable business processes, less depended on government policies etc but they are not trading at their all time high.
But, the likes of ADANIENT go on to become double triple in less than 12 months.
Third Lesson & Insights:
Above Two Insights are nothing more than a Post Mortem but taking the right decision at the right time is only important.
Few of our decisions are mentioned below, though we could not take advantage of any but still we were spot compared to many other “So Called Experts, Analyst and Market Participants”.
There many more – M&MFIN, TATAMOTORS, AARTIIND, COROMANDEL, INFY, MINDTREE, etc.
There is only one option:
Trade without Capital constraint or say in different way that is – more number of positions so that trading diversified in nature, Follow Stop Loss Levels – Hold on to Positions by Sitting Tight.
Now, we found our way around next Year and thereafter next year And that is not getting influenced by the surroundings because that has not been proven good for the Trading Account and/or performance.
But this is Valid only for the Range Bound Markets.
Welcome To 2023:
Majority of People are in Stock Market for overnight Success.
And that is why they do Intraday and Options Trading and both is either gambling or insider trading or at times both. We should not be doing either.
Whereas, we fall under the category of minority. You should too.
Please Treat all the Stock Market Trading / investments just like any other Buying or Selling decisions of yours in any other thing.
Because, there is hardly any difference between Real life decisions and Stock Market decisions when it comes to MONEY matters.
Our Primary focus is to give you best possible Entry Exit levels given the circumstances (market situations), Profit or Loss is secondary and beyond our control.
That is our limitations…🙂🙏🏽
Call, Text: +91 99003 30558
Nilesh Jain, Trading Counselor
SEBI RA: INH200002978, Bengaluru
E-Mail ID: Rocket@RocketTrades.com