Author: Rocket Trades

SEBI Registered RA: INH200002978 Please note that Rocket Trades does not have any presence on Twitter, Facebook, Forums, Print & Electronic media. All calls, market view are given only via WhatsApp mobile number 09900330558. Speak to Nilesh Jain Bengaluru for all Queries.

Fundamental View: Nifty 2018 Trading Range 8000 to 12000. Are YOU Prepared, enough ?

Rocket Trades

Greetings !

Nifty is nothing but average value of Top 50 (sometimes 55) Stocks’ Prices which (in turns) are driven by many permutations & combinations and It is near impossible to track all.

However, we can broadly divide all those permutations & combinations in two Fundamental Forces (matrix) which dictates Stock Market Price movements, namely

~ Macros – Overall Economy – as measured by FOREX & BONDS

~ Micros – Industry & Company Specific – Measured by Commodity Price Movements

 

Therefore, It is imperatives to understand their individual characters & impact on Stocks

~ FOREX: Country Specific Currency Appreciation helps in Exports, which increases trade surpluses in favour of Exporting Country which helps in overall Governmental Finances resulting in Increased Credit Ratings and Finally increased Investments by Private Investors.

That’s what USA is doing right now from TAX Reforms, Infrastructure Spending, High spending on Research & Development, etc. CHINA was doing it earlier and GERMANY is doing day in day out. Currently, INDIA is enjoying Rupee Appreciation.

~ BONDS: Defines Cost of Credits. Every Commerce Students had read this: Finance is bloodline of a Business. Therefore, easy & cheap Finance is always a welcome benefit of various QE’s (quantitative easing) programs of developed world’s Central Bankers.

At present, world over BONDS Prices are bullish which means Yields (cost of credits) are depressing enough to sustain high Stocks Prices especially in absence of rising Inflation.

Though, BONDS are long term instruments but their accounting impacts Quarterly Results.

~ COMMODITY (OIL, METALS, AGRI, & what not) : Present Low reading of Inflation vis-a-vis historical reference points means Commodity Prices are in Stable mode, therefore resulting in manufacturing cost in check, again Bullish sign for Stocks.

 

Possible Scenarios: Nifty Target during 2018

Bullish: Further Improving Macros & Micros from current readings will Hit NIFTY 12000

Semi-Bullish: Improving Macros but stable Micros will hit NIFTY 11000 & then expect Sideways and/or heighten volatile Price action

Semi-Bearish: Stable and/or even deteriorate Macros from current levels but Improving Micros will hit NIFTY 9700 & then expect Sideways and/or heighten volatile Price action

Bearish: Deterioration of both Macros & Micros from current levels will Hit NIFTY 8000

 

Therefore, Our Strategy is simple and Crystal Clear:

~ Under Bullish & Semi-Bullish Scenarios – Gives only BUY Positions in both Index & Stocks

and

~ Gives only Short Sell Positions in Indices, Stocks under Bearish & Semi-Bearish Scenarios

Secondly, Word over, First Two months (January & February) of every calendar year set the tone & trend for remaining 10 months; however, subject to country specific customs & economy practices. For Example INDIAN Budget, Investment allocations by both Foreign & Domestic Investment houses, etc…

Avoid treating above Statement as Thumb Rule; rather, it is a plain & simple observations.

 

Are YOU Prepared, enough ?

I agree, that Trading in Futures is risky but not equivalent to Casino Gambling. And, at the same time, useful instrument to manage/hedge Market risks during Down-Trend.

Remember that Blue-Chip, Large-Cap, Mid-Cap, Small-Caps, Long Term Investments, is all Jargon words and methods used to divert attention from day to day Market (Price) Volatility and/or prevailing Market Trend by the vested interests.

Better, Answer Yourself, what will happen to your Mutual Funds NAV (Net Asset Value) units in case of Market Falls, deep & sudden ?

In other words, false safety measures (justifying words like “Long-Term”) will not be useful.

We are not against long term cash investments per-se. Rather, we promote the same.

Only point which needs to be highlighted is that, even then, Entry “Pricing & Timing” is very much important in all those long term investments instruments, too.

That’s the reason why we keeps tracking Market’s Price action every single day, without fail.

Closing my write-up by wishing you to keep Booking Profits by Trading Safely !

Thanks for Reading.

Team Rocket

 

 

Get in touch with us at,

~ WhatsApp Number: 09900330558

~ E-Mail ID: Rocket@RocketTrades.com

For any more details, doubt, feedback; Speak with Nilesh Jain on 09900330558

Market gives & takes back, Whats’ Your choice ?

Rocket Trades

Greetings !

Trading in Stock Market is ZeroSum Game which means Your Profit is someone’s Loss or your current (booked or Mark to margin) losses are someone’s Profit.

In other words, Stock Market is a machine which rotates Capital from one Participants to another. Therefore, Our choice is to be on Side when Market is willingly in mood of giving and should be on side-line when it is in Mood of taking back.

If you are in Stock Market for LONG – TERM because we are. Then first / basic Idea is to Protect the Trading Capital, however the short coming of conservative trading is that we need to either book minor but unnecessary losses or/and sacrifice Profits at later date.

Which means that, ROCKET Trades is more interested in giving Timely Exit to Clients when Nifty is giving Confusing / conflicting signals especially at current high valuations.

This is prudent over playing Target and/or Stop-Loss Game just to satisfy Individual egos.

Sometimes, that turns out to be early or false exit and therefore

~ Resulting in Unnecessary Losses; Example – NBCC, NIFTY JAN, BANKNIFTY JAN

~ Resulting in Missing Profits – ASIANPAINT, NCC, NIFTY OCTOBER, & ULTRACEMCO

No Heart Burns:

Because, rest assured, Market would give you much better opportunity and Trending Positions at later stage, You just need to be alert & willing to take that new positions.

It pays to wait for Positions like IDFCBANK

And Please do remember that one wrong Entry or exit or both will break your Trading spirit with wide margin. Worst part is that healing takes long-long time. We learnt this simple statement from THREE wrong entries namely ARVIND, RECLTD, BANKNIFTY OCTOBER.

However, course correction and final EXIT was much better in all of above.

Conclusion:

All in all, Be ready / prepare to utilise second chance which will be offered by Market (supreme authority) in due course. No need to keep punching trading orders here & there.

Rest, I am leaving to your fine sense of Judgement; what is preferred most out of the following two, namely

~ Conservative Trading Approach

or

~ Aggressive Trading Approach

Time is decay presently and it will be in future, too. Therefore, make good choice, Take your own time.  No Hurries No Worries !

Closing my write-up by wishing you for Booking Profits by Trading Safely !

Thanks for Reading.

Team Rocket

Get in touch with us at,

~ WhatsApp Number: 09900330558

~ E-Mail ID: Rocket@RocketTrades.com

For any more details, doubt, feedback; Speak with Nilesh Jain on 09900330558

Market Approach & Strategy, If Trading in Futures…

Rocket Trades

Greetings !

Today (3rd Jan 2018) we closed all Four Positions. ULTRACEMCO, NBCC, NIFTY & BankNIFTY

Booking Losses is not a bad thing. Now, No Position is Open. 100% in Cash.

Part One: “Market Approach” 

Trading in Derivatives is & will be volatile & choppy… Love it or Hate it, Choice is Ours.

“Love it” because you do not have position in Market. So, there is no fear of losing whereas others are on losing side of trade. Even, Few People would be more than happy when their known Person is losing Money especially when they advised otherwise…

“Hate it” because You do have positions in Market and on losing side of Trade.

Hypothetically, two characters can help us in understanding the above scenario and their names are Narendra & Rahul. This is pure case study, no one is right or wrong here.

~ Narendra – Decide Trend & builds-up Trading Positions whereas Rahul is watching him trade in disbelief and from safe distance by maintaining radio silence.

When Narendra starts incurring Mark To Margin Losses on open positions, then Rahul becomes more than happy & starts boosting around with confidence. On the other hand, Narendra was sticking with his Market view and maintained Stop-Loss for Open Positions; with willingness to re-adjust his Trading Strategy, if required any change, thereof.

~ Rahul started maintaining ratio silence again when realised that Market started going in Direction / favour of Narendra and He will book profit once again !

or

Becomes even louder when Narendra book losses, even negligible. Whereas, without wasting time, Narendra starts preparing for next entry / trade.

If you are a Trader then better to behave like Narendra. That’s the only learning Point.

Every Trader is well aware & accept above Statement to the core, but starts behaving irrationally when Prices are not in his / her favour.

Trade with enough Capital but Time Tested Strategy is a must. Finally, Patiently follow rules.

“Part 2 – Trading Strategy for Futures”:

FOREX, COMMODITY, BONDS, STOCKS are Interlinked & Co-related and because of that following things used to happened in Past, but not happening at-least for now,

~ Rupee Appreciation means Nifty Bullish and Rupee Depreciation means Nifty Bearish.

~ Rising Commodity Prices (GOLD, CRUDE) is bearish for Nifty

~ Rising Bond Yields means Inflation & Interest Rates are expected to go up, negative for Nifty

Remember, this is also an universal rule that Financial markets are dynamic and therefore evolving on regular basis. Otherwise, there is no explanation why world over Stock Markets are either Trading near all time high or keep making Fresh life time high after another.

Secondly, We respect more of Nifty 50 Stocks‘ individual buying and/or selling patterns measured from delivery cash volume to ascertain Nifty ‘s next directional view.

On top of that, using USDINR, HANGSENG and GOLD Price action to confirm the same.

That’s the only reason why we had advised buy in Nifty at 10550 (even) finding Nifty Over-valued on various Fundamental parameters & Technical Analysis matrix.

All in all, We believes to Trade only when Risk Reward Ratio is very favourable, By maintaining proper Stop-loss. Clients need to Bear with Intraday Volatility & ignore noise.

I understand it is difficult but try to maintain balance by neither getting disappointed when booking losses nor excited when Booking Profits. because, this is never ending cycle.

Closing Remarks:

Never Forget that Risk will always be there if you choose to be active in Stock Markets either through Cash Investments or Trading in Futures or both.

Therefore, Market approach and Trading (investment) plan should be crystal clear and must covers all aspects like Entry, Exit Rules given any Market conditions.

Thanks for Reading.

Team Rocket

Get in touch with us at,

~ WhatsApp Number: 09900330558

~ E-Mail ID: Rocket@RocketTrades.com

For any more details, doubt, feedback; Speak with Nilesh Jain on 09900330558