NIFTY50: October “UP” – November “DOWN” 2021 – No Surprise ‼️

Better to Forewarn…

Forewarned is always insured, at least emotionally. And the Research Analyst is required to prepare their Clients for even the most unfavorable circumstances. This article is all about that aspect of our working.

👉 3rd Week of October 2021 – NIFTY50 Hit all time High at 18602

👉 4th Week of November 2021 – 1600pts Correction from all time high

And both of this were updated to Clients well in advance. Please see attached Image.

Good thing is that Market played out the way Pillars’ Strategy forewarned us.

What all has happened during this period are listed below for quick recall…

Second Quarterly Results, Festivities (Navaratri, Dussehra, Deepawali, etc) Monthly Data Points (Auto Sales, Cement Despatches, Telecom Subscribers, Inflation), RBI FMC Meet, Corporate Announcements (like RIL Aramco Deal Off), Crypto and Natural Gas & Crude’s relentless Rising prices, Repeal of Farm Bills, FOMC Taper Decisions, COVID-19 Cases and likewise many more were either unknown or far off in future.

No one know how these News, Events will turn out; most importantly how Market would react to them.

Agreed, Well, back then no one knew including ourselves but we had a fair idea about the possibilities and those were updated to Members of 💯% Club via our 9th October message.

What Next from hereon:

During October, NIFTY50 revisiting to its 100 DMA (and possibly 200 DMA) levels looked difficult, suspicious if not entirely impossible. But, that happened in November as projected by Pillars’ Strategy.

Agreed not the way we thought and exactly not in the manner we wanted it to happen. For Example, We had two months’ time to hit 100DMA but Market did in Two Days – 500pts on Monday 22 November and another 500pts on Friday 26 November 2021. Secondly, we thought IT Stocks (TCS, INFY) will lead this time but again BANK Stocks did.

Likewise, once again, we forewarn that Pillars’ Strategy believes that NIFTY50 is not in down trend. And, we will see New All Time High on & before March 2022 ‼️

Of course, if Trend Reversal comes then we will change our view but even in that case minimum 18000 is expected to hit.

However, we didn’t change our view in the follow-on Update.

Only two updates about NIFTY50 in Two Months and both are mentioned herein. We had not advised any trading call in NIFTY BANKNIFTY FINNIFTY neither in Futures nor in Options. Simply because we didn’t have clear cut Stop-loss. Even though clearly were aware of the impending levels.

Our Policy is Simple – “No SL No Trading”.

Sitting Idle is much better strategy than to trade without SL. And, precisely so not giving Buy even at current levels. Let’s Watch what happens from hereon.

Logical Thinking is a must

Even then American & European Markets were making All time high during November 2021

Compare the following Images

American Market went on to Make New All time High after touching DMAs

Remember Delta Variant driven 3rd Wave⁉️

What happened after that.

We all saw NIFTY50 hitting 18500+ levels.

At present, NIFTY50 down 9.5% from its all time High and BANNIFTY 16.67% far off. Where as Global Markets just saw pull back now – And, they are hardly 5% down from their respective High levels.

Think Logically, If INDIA was good at 18500 as promoted & marketed by Business Media and various Analysts back then is it not the “BEST” at 17000 levels. either of the things are wrong, is it not ?

How to Respond ⁉️

When Prices were one way going up then people wanted Correction which never materialized.

And, now when correction happened then same set of people are worried about Down Trend.

Either ways they aren’t happy, satisfied to take risk. But, happily share opinion freely.

That is the best way we can think off in given situation.

Need more help?

☎ +91 9900330558, Bengaluru; Preferably during Market Hours (9am to 4:00pm).

October 2021: Pump & Dump Month ‼️

1st Half of October: Short Sellers got Panic.

Second Half of October: Buyers got Panic.

And, Euphoria was the real culprit.

Before proceeding further, please consider following statement of a former Market Regulator,


‘We don’t regulate euphoria.’

former SEC Chairman Jay Clayton

Market Veterans in October 2021

We have selected only those statements, view, opinion which has direct reference of “IRCTC”.


Three different People, three Different Views on same electronic media platform but commonly about IRCTC Stock in same October month.

  • Mr. Deven R Choksey: TATAPOWER, IRCTC has no reason to be sold-off.
  • Mr. Dipen Mehta: IRCTC has PE Ratio of more than 300 even at current rates.
  • Mr. Manish Gunwani: Quality Stocks are unlikely to give Market Beating Returns.

Today, these 3 gentlemen, later other set of Market Veterans would issue statement about some other Stock.

Now, if people are assuming that Stock Market is a Satta Bazaar (Casino) then what is wrong in that. Or Worst “TRADING IS RANDOM”.

Notice their Statements Dates also – DRC on 19 October, DM on 21 October, MG on 22 October 2021. By then all the damage was done.

Why we are concerned because when present 5 Crore Unique Demat accounts would become 10, 20, 30 Crore unique Demat accounts, Statements of our great market veterans would create more distraction.

We are just trying to provide the food for thought to the Traders / Investors. And only want to know, how many such statements are affecting and/or useful in their trading (investing) decisions.

We aren’t defaming, nor against, and/or blaming anyone, neither we are acting as a Moral Police.

Problem is they don’t issue clarification and/or provide follow-ups. But if they provide updates, then it would be a big help for retail traders or investors who follow their views. This should happen in all the situations & for forever.

Because, No one is right or wrong including ourselves.

Only Market is right and Supreme. Respect.

But Selected Disclosures Affect Us All.

This is How Innocent Investor played-out.

All of sudden, day before yesterday (i.e. Thursday, 28 October 2021) after Market hours, all the media starts flashing news about 50:50 convenience Ticketing Revenue Sharing arrangement between IRCTC and Railways Ministry starting from 1st November 2021.

And, on the next day, that is (yesterday) Friday 29 October 2021, on the expected lines IRCTC started hitting back to back Down Circuits from the opening bell itself – a good 30% Fall, (Thursday Closing 913.50, Friday Low 639.45) and all this in one day.

However, IRCTC recovered from Day’s Low to Close only 8% down, because flip-flop about the Revenue Decision started off from the high levels.

This is the governance standard for a listed Company, is it not ⁉️

Is anyone would ever be held responsible / accountable or should we take it lightly and assume it always happens – Rest is the History.

Even then, Market Veterans keep on issuing statements. Please refer below attached Screen Shots of 29th October 2021, till afternoon.

Hopefully, you noticed that views change with situation. And, this is bad, really bad.

Whereas, we did what we must.

That is what we said and did.

Notice the date, time & content thereof.

Conclusion:

This is not only about one stock (IRCTC) but many others like IEX, AARTIIND, ADANI Groups, TATAMOTORS, TATAPOWER, DEEPAKNTR, NAVINFLUOR actually list is long, very long.

For Example: TATAPOWER: Doubled in 75 Days – from 125 in July 2021 to 250+ by October first week. How to justify this ⁉️

Hopefully, you got the point. This is all part of pump and Dump strategy designed for you – the innocent trader / investor.

  • In Bull Market: First Pump and then Dump.
  • In Bear Market: First Dump and then Pump.

We suggest you to trade with proper Stop-loss and invest only when having highest safety of Margin. And, most importantly willingness to EXIT, even at loss.

Always Remember:

The greater the Confidence, The greater the Risk,

The greater the Risk, The greater the odds of a Loss.

Things are never as good as you hope, but never as bad as you fear.


Need more help?

☎ +91 9900330558, Bengaluru; Preferably during Market Hours (9am to 4:00pm).

No Logic: “Just Buy, Buy and more Buy.” Absurd.

Question: Why would you “INVEST” in a Mutual Fund Scheme, what is your prime objective ⁉

Answer: Of course for Better Returns.

And, Hopefully, you are aware of the fact that in Mutual Fund Schemes, Invest means “BUY”.

Which means, IF Market is going up you will get Good, Better, Best inflation adjusted Returns.

God forbid, but, by chance IF Market crashes during YOUR Goal Year / Period just like it did in March 2020 then what will be your situation, what will happen to your Goal.

Did you ever think about that ⁉

Even did your Mutual Fund Distributor &/or Advisor told you about Plan “B.”

Case Study: Grave Situation

Mr. Rahul had invested in a Mutual Fund Scheme at 9000 NIFTY50 Levels during March 2017; that is just after BJP’s big win in UP Elections. Mind You, that was all time high of Market, back then.

However, GST was on its way (officially lunched on 1st July 2017) and Market had very well recovered from triple shocks namely Surgical Strike, Demonetization and Trump Wins the American Presidency, all were unexpected and sudden.

Till February 2020, Mr. Rahul was steadily getting good inflation adjusted returns even after all the uncertainty generated out of Surgical Strike Two, General Elections of 2019 and issues like JET Airways defund, Revocation of Article 370, etc.

Then, came the Master Event – Covid-19. Which driven out Market from the cliff like anything.

And because of that his returns are back to “ZERO” and only now at 18000 NIFTY50 Levels, he is getting near about 💯% returns.

At this stage, Investments are in Fixed Deposits, Gold, Land & Property looked much better.

In other words, Your Mutual Fund investment is tied up to NIFTY50 just like of Mr. Rahul’s.

If that is the case, then, why not just do Index ETF either in Bulk and/or via SIP route on regular basis; Why to take unnecessary Market risk by investing in Individual Stocks even via Mutual Funds route.

If You do so then will have following benefits,

  • Cost Saving: ETF Managers are charging lesser Fee compare to Active Fund Managers.
  • Crystal Clear Risk: Index can not go to Zero. There is limit How much Index could fall.
  • Peace of Mind: Researching, Comparing ETF Returns are easy. Better diversification.
  • Backing of Exchange / Regulatory Body: Feeding out Weaker Stocks, adding-up Stronger Stocks to support Market from the lower levels.

Mutual Fund Schemes are not giving all of this in a way you must get.


But, again you will not be having following Benefits,

  • You can not do Short Sell. Which means Participation in Down Trend is Ruled Out.
  • You can not withdraw Funds for fear of Losing out on Potential Reward or Exit Loads.
  • Your Returns are limited. In a sense, Mutual Fund Units never become Multiple bagger.
    • TATAPOWER become 5 Times in 12 Months
    • TATAMOTORS generated 3 Times Returns in 12 months

There is a Option: Pillars’ Strategy.

If you give us 36 months, and during the period do exactly as updated on your WhatsApp then without a doubt YOUR Original Capital of ₹10,00,000/- can easily be ₹30,00,0000.

We just need 12 to 15 months but taking approach of Under Promise Over Delivery and/or Principle of Conservatives.

Your Standard Market Risk remains 20% for 100% Reward in 12 Months. Our Working Motto. 🙂🙏🏽


Need more help?

☎ +91 9900330558, Bengaluru; Preferably during Market Hours (9am to 4:00pm).