Market Holiday Today: BSE, NSE to remain closed on account of Maharashtra Day.
BANKNIFTY is less than 1000pts away from its all time high in spite of all the news like ADANI Group, Silicon Valley Bank.
Closed at 43233.90 as on 28 April 2023, and 👇
Till date recorded All Time High for BANKNIFTY is 44151.80
Table – One
Top constituents by weightage AS on 28 April 2023
Company’s Name
NSE CODE
Weight (%)
HDFC Bank Ltd.
HDFCBANK
27.41
ICICI Bank Ltd.
ICICIBANK
23.61
Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd.
KOTAKBANK
10.5
State Bank of India
SBIN
10.47
Axis Bank Ltd.
AXISBANK
9.53
IndusInd Bank Ltd.
INDUSINDBK
6.25
Bank of Baroda
BANKBARODA
2.91
AU Small Finance Bank Ltd.
AUBANK
2.65
Federal Bank Ltd.
FEDERALBNK
2.38
IDFC First Bank Ltd.
IDFCFIRSTB
1.59
Table – Two
SYMBOL
52wk HIGH
52wk High Date
52wk LOW
52wk Low Date
HDFCBANK
1720
17-Apr-23
1271.6
17-Jun-22
ICICIBANK
958.2
30-Nov-22
669.95
17-Jun-22
KOTAKBANK
1997.55
18-Nov-22
1631
30-Jun-22
SBIN
629.55
15-Dec-22
430.7
20-Jun-22
AXISBANK
970
04-Jan-23
618.25
23-Jun-22
INDUSINDBK
1275.8
20-Sep-22
763.2
23-Jun-22
BANKBARODA
197.2
09-Dec-22
89.85
20-Jun-22
AUBANK
712
29-Apr-22
539
15-Jul-22
FEDERALBNK
143.4
16-Jan-23
82.5
26-May-22
IDFCFIRSTB
64.3
15-Dec-22
28.95
22-Jun-22
Observations:
WHEN 90% plus combined weightage of BANKNIFTY Stocks made new 52 week Low means Market is almost or near BOTTOM.
And, we should become defensive (create hedge) when 50% plus combined weightage of BANKNIFTY Stocks makes new 52 week HIGH means Market is almost or near TOP.
Same is valid for all other Sectoral Indices – We are not sure… 🙂🙏🏽
However, This is all True in case of BANKNIFTY especially when NIFTY50 is in Clear “BUY” Mode. Likewise, when Short Sell is not Triggered – correction is Possible which means BUY at every 4% Fall – without STOP-LOSS.
Now People are BUYING Banks…🤔
Getting started is the hardest part
The most successful Research Analysts don’t care – who’s watching or following.
They just keep on doing their bit to capture Market Opportunities…
Rocket Trades
We are Strictly fee only Research House armed with proprietary methods & workings.
Of course, we cannot say that we are closing Calendar Year 2022 on a very high note but comparably what we had gone through during the year we can safely conclude (say) that working has been satisfactory but subsequent improvement is required too.
Below are three Insights – which we never had seen / experienced in the last 22 Years of our actively watching the Market.
First Lesson or Insight:
In spite of all kinds of the Bad News, for example: War News, Rising Inflation, Depreciating Rupee, relentless Selling by FIIs, Global Markets’ Down Trend, Border Disputes & Issues, Rising Interest Rates- still NIFTY50 could find the bottom and make New All Time High.
Agreed that on bad news Market did see Sell off but quick to find the bottom also.
What actually had happened in the Last 5 Quarters of Calendar Year 2021 & 2022:
October 2021 – All Time High 18604
December 2022 – All Time High 18887.60
In between recorded 52 week Low has been at 15183.40
That is not even 20% at Index Levels from October 2021 High.
Agreed Stocks had seen / experienced strong beating but even then overall Trend remained range bound since last 5 Quarters.
Which means those who were Buyers (die-hard bulls) and Trades without Stop-loss only made money in Calendar Year 2022.
The Indian Stock Markets’ die-hard bulls are now dependent on SIP Money. Shaking off their confidence will definitely have to be a domestic issue / matter.
Global Matters impact FIIs and not to the SIPs. 🙂🙏🏽
Second Lesson or Insight:
Most fundamental companies of Indian Stock Markets had fallen 30%, 40% from their respective All Time Highs, for example – TCS, INFY and still trading at & near their respective 52 week lows.
Whereas Good Story Tellers like ADANIENT have tripled during the same period. And still trading near 52 week Highs.
Another Example: PAYTM listed on 18 November 2021 at ₹1955 levels and today trading around ₹550 levels – 75% value lost.
What an irony – now the same PAYTM management is bringing up the Buy back offer at ₹810 levels. Mind you there is no rights issue, bonus, and/or split took place in the last 13 months of listing.
Is it not qualified a kind of the white collar crime ⁉️
No one ever made a decision because of a number. They need a story.
Daniel Kahneman, in Michael Lewis’ “The Undoing Project“
Government Stocks are no better, for example: LICI – listed on 17 May 2022 at ₹918.95 levels and today trading around 680 levels – 30% value lost.
The government sold its holding of LICI to Retailers at 950 levels.
Old timers should relate the same good story telling to COALINDIA of 2014.
Barring IRCTC none of the other Government IPO ever made retailers happy.
Making this derogatory statement based on a limited number of examples Pardon me in advance, if I missed out any other name.
And, Rumours already started doing the rounds about unified insurance licences, mergers and acquisitions of other subsidiaries / other government companies with LICI to shore up the Market value. However, even then,
We are waiting to BUY LICI at & below ₹550 NSE Cash levels for long term investments.
Just like our call of Buying “YESBANK” ₹11 a piece
On the other hand the likes of TCS INFY have a proven track record, honest promoters, cash rich, debt free, stable business processes, less depended on government policies etc but they are not trading at their all time high.
But, the likes of ADANIENT go on to become double triple in less than 12 months.
Shup Up & Keep Talking. 🙂🙏🏽
Third Lesson & Insights:
Above Two Insights are nothing more than a Post Mortem but taking the right decision at the right time is only important.
Few of our decisions are mentioned below, though we could not take advantage of any but still we were spot compared to many other “So Called Experts, Analyst and Market Participants”.
There many more – M&MFIN, TATAMOTORS, AARTIIND, COROMANDEL, INFY, MINDTREE, etc.
There is only one option:
Trade without Capital constraint or say in different way that is – more number of positions so that trading diversified in nature, Follow Stop Loss Levels – Hold on to Positions by Sitting Tight.
Now, we found our way around next Year and thereafter next year And that is not getting influenced by the surroundings because that has not been proven good for the Trading Account and/or performance.
But this is Valid only for the Range Bound Markets.
More Capital More Peaceful Nights 🙂🙏🏽
Welcome To 2023:
Majority of People are in Stock Market for overnight Success.
And that is why they do Intraday and Options Trading and both is either gambling or insider trading or at times both. We should not be doing either.
Whereas, we fall under the category of minority. You should too.
Please Treat all the Stock Market Trading / investments just like any other Buying or Selling decisions of yours in any other thing.
Because, there is hardly any difference between Real life decisions and Stock Market decisions when it comes to MONEY matters.
Our Primary focus is to give you best possible Entry Exit levels given the circumstances (market situations), Profit or Loss is secondary and beyond our control.
That is our limitations…🙂🙏🏽
Rocket Trades
We are Strictly fee only Research House armed with proprietary methods & workings.
Rocket Trades: Fee only Research Analyst 
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