First Thing First – “The Disclosure”:
Rocket Trades is neither biased nor acting too alarmist. Rather, trying to be realist.
Our focus is on proprietary Technical Analysis and based on it’s reading only we arrive on a particular conclusion.
However, This is not the first time we are giving extended, (some might think) imaginary NIFTY Targets especially given prevailing levels of 10300 under such a bullish environment.
Therefore, two examples might be enough to support, I guess. Screen Shot attached.
First Screen Shot of 19 April 21017: Nifty Spot Closed at 9103, Previous Highest High was 9274 which was formed on 5 April 2017
Second Screen Shot of 4 October 21017: Nifty Spot Closed at 9915, Previous Highest High was 10148 which was formed on 19 October 2017
Paid & Trial Clients (of April, OCT 2017) had received both of these Whatsapp Messages.
Hopefully, Air is clear now!
Technical Analysis can give potential Price Target and stop-loss but unscheduled news flow / events both domestic, international including micro (corporate) and macro (govt.) announcements which actually force Markets to either hit or miss given Targets are way beyond our coverage area.
Few Examples are in order, again to confirm above point:
~ Fantastic UP election Win by BJP during March 2017
~ Immediate Enactment of Farm Loan Waiver by big states
~ TATASONS giving away Telecom business to BHARTIARTL Free of Cost
~ PSU Banks Re-capitalisation Bond announcement by Government of India
All of above news flow are impossible to predict in advance and difficult to access the impact within few hours time. I mean, who expected 50% upside in PNB the next day Or 25% around rally in both RELIENCE & BHARTIARTL within few trading sessions.
Another way of looking the things: PSUBank Index were around 4100 during February 2015 and continues to fall to make low of 1894. But after Re-Cap Bond Announcement made high again 4335 from 3093. That’s good 71% appreciation in just two days !
Now the Mid-Point:
Long Time economic watchers would agree that, though Bailouts are bullish in short term but sow the seeds for future economic issues of different nature, because of in-build direct moral hazards and indirectly promotion of inefficiency.
Now, every one resounding so bullish that No Risk exist in Financial Markets.
I mean who is talking about anything mentioned below in today’s time, which historically were preceded before market corrections / down trend, til date.
~ Index High valuations: both Book Valuation wise, Price Earning Ratio Parameters
~ Rising Commodity Prices (Crude Oil / Gold) and / or depreciation value of USDINR
~ Impact of Slightest change in Inflation, Interest Rates (e.g. RelJio Invested 2.6lac Cr)
~ Currency war, Policies of Central Bankers, Bond Yields, Rising Governmental Deficits
~ Scam / Fraud at government or corporate levels, both Internationally / Domestic
~ Political Instability caused by Assembly Electoral Results, &/or Government miss-step
~ Geo-Political Tension, Countries accusing each other, Arms Race, Terrorist Attacks
At ROCKET, we are not praying for any of these to happen anywhere but as a realistic analytical research firm, we think that it is our responsibilities to keep eye on possible disruptions of on-going rally not only in India but across the global.
Presently, we are much better off by not buying at prevailing levels of 10300+,
All in all, as of now, Safety of Margin is not in Buy side rather it is in Short Sell Trades.
In our words, awaiting for Proper Set-up, Two possibilities are in our mind,
First: Look for Short Sells at higher levels in range of 10500 around levels
Second: Look for Buy at lower levels, We can’t share a specific Index level at present
Rising Stock Market on shaky ground is bad for everyone. Therefore, Be Alert.
Thanks for Reading.
Get in touch with us at,
~ WhatsApp Number: 09900330558
~ E-Mail ID: Rocket@RocketTrades.com
For any more details, doubt, feedback please Speak with Nilesh Jain on 09900330558