August Expiry was a conflicting Expiry in many ways for both NSE & MCX. Because,
~ Divergence – Normally, It had been seen that HANGSENG & NIFTY are highly co-related but during August Expiry it was not the case. Nifty went on to Make Life time high one after another whereas HANGSENG was under Pressure.
~ Buyers Support was clearly missing – GOLD, SILVER, ZINC, COPPER & USDINR went on to make low after low. Gave negative Surprises to the Traders who either want to BUY or already were Buyers at higher levels. None of them took support at any levels.
~ Global & Domestic News Flow was neither superly Bearish or Bullish to justify above mentioned price actions in NSE, MCX &/or FOREX Markets, rather News Flow is to be considered as mixed on any parameters.
Agreed that there was News Flow Related to Trump Trade War, Turkey Currency Crisis, Government’s inaction on Economical Reforms rather politically proven defensive on charges from Opposition about Rafale – RNAVAL Deal. But, none sustained the mental space for long.
Even both US Federal Bank and Reserve Bank of India had risen their respective Leading Rates but none rocked the boat because Rising Rates was discounted by Markets (well in advance) on improved communications from the respective Central Banks.
On one side, if there was above mentioned Negative News flow weighing the Market then there was slew of Positive news flow acting as balance in form of Progression on PSU Banks’ NPA & subsequent resolutions, Improved Corporate’s performance announced in quarterly Results equally both in India and internationally.
Nevertheless, Rocket was at forefront in guiding Clients:
Following is the Sequences of Messages from the Starting Point of Rally & Fall and finally Possible Reversal for Nifty, MCX Gold, Silver, Copper, Zinc etc… !
1). Initially, our view was also Bearish on Nifty but as soon as market gave bullish indications, we did course correction immediately.
Advising Buying at all time High for another 500pts to 700pts Bullish Target seemed euphoric & achieving intended then (27 July 2018) looked impossible target but now this is reality…
On first of August RBI meeting was Scheduled. We missed Official Entry on 2 August though it was Informed 24hrs in Advance. This is was unusual in recent memory that Nifty had 40pts Premium during first week of new Expiry especially when Trading at all time high.
2). After Missing the Official Entry on 2 August 2018, We never bogged – down with high Nifty (all time high) levels and kept on sending messages to BUY even at all time high.
We had our own reasons to justify aggression for Professional Traders & Conservative behaviour for Retail Clients who must not bear High – Risk given the current situations.
3). Until Friday 10 August 2018 when Nifty Spot Index closed at 11429 Levels; we remained bullish and requesting Clients to avoid Short Selling. Rather, asking them to BUY Nifty when comes near 11350 and on Monday 13 August (next working day) Nifty Spot Closed at 11355.75
Saturday 11 August, Sent Update about Possible Break down in COPPER, ZINC & GOLD which promptly happened. Turkey Currency Crisis came out one night prior but this was Surprising that Even GOLD did not run-away. Whereas, Copper Zinc in understandable.
4). Wednesday To Wednesday – NSE & MCX two Holidays (15 August Independence Day & 22 August Bakri Eid) and we continued working with best of our abilities and Market foresightedness.
On evening of 15 August – Global Markets were having Blood-bath. Dow was minus near about 350pts and HangSeng lost near about 600pts earlier in the day and on top of that HangSeng Futures was indicating another 800pts fall for next day.
All (TV Analysts, Forum Analysts, Self – Proclaimed non SEBI Registered Analysts) got hyper active in giving Bearish Targets for Nifty for next day Opening dated 16 August, except few who dared enough to give Bullish view in-spite of all these…
Many People thought that 11500 would be final Resistance for Nifty but that has been proven wrong. That’s the power of Bullish Shock, Shocking, Shocked Pattern that Market would not stop at any Resistance. Likewise Bearish Shock, Shocking, Shocked Pattern would not respect any Support.
5). On Friday 24 August, Nifty Spot closed at 11557 when below mentioned message was sent at 14:49 hours; on Monday 27 August Nifty Index Closed at 11692 levels. Today, Tuesday 28 August Nifty achieved Closing Basis Target of 11700.
Please note Rocket Trades’ working Principles and Disclaimers:
a). In Principle, We are neither Bullish nor Bearish. Updating only what Rocket Pillars’ Strategy is advising to us at that prevailing Time.
b). Idea is to do provide actionable advise for objective Tradings with best of intentions.
c). Markets are dynamic. Therefore, Learning never Stops which means Mistakes would be part & parcel. Soughting your best of supports at all time.
d). Neither recommend over trading nor trading without proper Stop-loss.
e). Above Screen Shots were exclusive to Clients. There would be slight difference in wordings & sending times vis-a-vis Trial Messages. Whereas, Market Direction &/or trading Levels were uniformly informed to Trial & Paid Clients, alike.
Speak To Nilesh Jain for Query &/or Paid Services.
Phone / WhatsApp – (+91) 99003 30558
Rocket Trades, SEBI RRA INH200002978
Fee Only Research Analyst, Bengaluru